This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 76% | $6.0M |
| 2 | April 30 | 70% | $9.5M |
| 3 | March 31 | 5% | $37.3M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 18:46 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 76% probability, with $54.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $54.8M, with $7.5M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade