This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | April 30 | 23% | $22K |
| 2 | April 15 | 8% | $27K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 31, 2026 at 03:20 UTC, the leading outcome is April 30 at 23% probability, with $49K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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