The market strongly favors June 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $62.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 100% | - | $3.9M |
| 2 | July 31 | 100% | - | $1.2M |
| 3 | June 15 | 100% | - | $2.8M |
| 4 | June 16 | 100% | - | $326K |
| 5 | June 17 | 100% | - | $171K |
| 6 | June 18 | 100% | - | $181K |
| 7 | June 19 | 100% | - | $231K |
| 8 | June 14 | 100% | - | $2.6M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt o...
This prediction market tracks whether US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...? will occur, with $62.8M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $40K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
As of Jun 19, 2026 at 03:35 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 100% probability, with $62.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $62.8M, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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