July 31 leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $35.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 66% | +53% | $375K |
| 2 | June 30 | 43% | +133% | $1.9M |
| 3 | June 15 | 16% | +506% | $381K |
| 4 | June 12 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $949K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. officially announces an extension of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, defined as a publicly announced commitment to the continued halt o...
This prediction market tracks whether US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...? will occur, with $35.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward July 31 at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $4.1M in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 66% probability, with $35.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $35.0M, with $4.1M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms