December 31 leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $113.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 62% | +60% | $1.7M |
| 2 | June 30 | 34% | +190% | $9.2M |
| 3 | May 31 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $22.8M |
| 4 | May 15 | 1% | +18082% | $16.7M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace dea...
As of May 14, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 62% probability, with $113.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $113.4M, with $1.7M traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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