The market strongly favors June 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $478.9M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 100% | - | $49.0M |
| 2 | December 31 | 100% | - | $14.4M |
| 3 | July 31 | 100% | - | $12.7M |
| 4 | June 15 | 100% | - | $177.4M |
| 5 | August 31 | 100% | - | $3.7M |
| 6 | October 31 | 100% | - | $2.6M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace dea...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? will occur, with $478.9M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: June 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $133K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 19, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 100% probability, with $478.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $478.9M, with $133K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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