No clear favorite. July 31 leads at just 6%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | July 31 | 6% | +1438% | $38K |
| 2 | June 30 | 1% | +18082% | $37K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise,...
This prediction market tracks whether Israeli forces enter Beirut by...? will occur, with $87K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — July 31 leads at only 6% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $39K traded in the last 24 hours alone (45% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 01, 2026 at 11:05 UTC, the leading outcome is July 31 at 6% probability, with $87K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms