Market is split — Amir Ohana at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Ohana | 50% | +98% | $26K |
| 2 | Person B BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person T | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that t...
This prediction market tracks whether Likud Party Primary Winner will occur, with $75K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Amir Ohana leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-26. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 17, 2026 at 23:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Amir Ohana at 50% probability, with $75K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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