No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 8%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 8% | +1233% | $13K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...? will occur, with $109K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 8% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours alone (25% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 30, 2026 at 06:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 8% probability, with $109K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $109K, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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