The market strongly favors December 31 at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 98% | +2% | $5K |
| 2 | October 31 | 93% | +8% | $43K |
| 3 | October 24 | 86% | +17% | $319 |
| 4 | October 17 | 78% | +27% | $492 |
| 5 | October 10 BEST VALUE | 40% | +150% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolv...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? will occur, with $50K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31 is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (31% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 02, 2026 at 22:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 98% probability, with $50K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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