The market strongly favors Marine Le Pen at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marine Le Pen | 88% | +14% | $12K |
| 2 | Édouard Philippe | 47% | +113% | $3K |
| 3 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 41% | +144% | $11K |
| 4 | Other | 32% | +208% | $112 |
| 5 | David Lisnard | 10% | +890% | $23K |
| 6 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 7% | +1339% | $5K |
| 7 | Olivier Faure | 6% | +1513% | $836 |
| 8 | François Hollande | 6% | +1526% | $7K |
| 9 | Gabriel Attal | 6% | +1639% | $3K |
| 10 | Sarah Knafo | 6% | +1639% | $4K |
| 11 | Jordan Bardella | 6% | +1718% | $22K |
| 12 | Gérald Darmanin | 5% | +1880% | $1K |
| 13 | Michel Barnier BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $1K |
| 14 | Éric Zemmour | 5% | +1983% | $695 |
| 15 | Sébastien Lecornu | 5% | +2098% | $2K |
| 16 | Dominique de Villepin | 4% | +2122% | $1K |
| 17 | Manuel Bompard | 4% | +2199% | $3K |
| 18 | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 4% | +2281% | $799 |
| 19 | François Bayrou | 4% | +2640% | $1K |
| 20 | Bernard Cazeneuve | 3% | +2799% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows...
This prediction market tracks whether Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? will occur, with $152K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Marine Le Pen is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $16K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 14, 2026 at 18:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 88% probability, with $152K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $152K, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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