Marine Le Pen leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marine Le Pen | 80% | +26% | $2K |
| 2 | Édouard Philippe | 40% | +147% | $704 |
| 3 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 33% | +203% | $2K |
| 4 | Other | 32% | +208% | $112 |
| 5 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 15% | +567% | $25 |
| 6 | Gabriel Attal | 14% | +641% | $859 |
| 7 | Bruno Retailleau | 10% | +953% | $428 |
| 8 | Dominique de Villepin | 9% | +1011% | $1K |
| 9 | Jordan Bardella | 6% | +1438% | $16K |
| 10 | Sarah Knafo | 6% | +1487% | $743 |
| 11 | Ségolène Royal | 5% | +1861% | $2K |
| 12 | François Hollande BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $21 |
| 13 | Sébastien Lecornu | 5% | +1920% | $77 |
| 14 | Laurent Wauquiez | 5% | +2051% | $55 |
| 15 | Bernard Cazeneuve | 5% | +2074% | $232 |
| 16 | Éric Zemmour | 4% | +2281% | $631 |
| 17 | Élisabeth Borne | 4% | +2281% | $3K |
| 18 | Clémentine Autain | 4% | +2497% | $494 |
| 19 | Jean Castex | 4% | +2532% | $767 |
| 20 | David Lisnard | 3% | +2799% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows...
This prediction market tracks whether Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round? will occur, with $56K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Marine Le Pen at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (21% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 10, 2026 at 21:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Marine Le Pen at 80% probability, with $56K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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