The market strongly favors No release by November 30 at 87%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No release by November 30 | 87% | +15% | $22K |
| 2 | November 18 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1553% | $662 |
| 3 | November 15 | 4% | +2464% | $598 |
| 4 | November 28 | 4% | +2532% | $2K |
| 5 | November 12 | 3% | +3536% | $1K |
| 6 | November 11 | 2% | +3982% | $1K |
| 7 | November 30 | 2% | +4155% | $366 |
| 8 | November 24 | 2% | +5305% | $2K |
| 9 | November 26 | 2% | +5456% | $773 |
| 10 | November 13 | 1% | +7592% | $668 |
| 11 | November 14 | 1% | +9424% | $786 |
| 12 | November 23 | 1% | +13233% | $675 |
| 13 | November 17 | 1% | +15285% | $952 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or mode...
This prediction market tracks whether Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...? will occur, with $43K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
The market shows strong consensus: No release by November 30 is priced at 87%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (40% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is No release by November 30 at 87% probability, with $43K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms