Market is split — None before 2027 at 60%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | None before 2027 | 60% | +68% | $12K |
| 2 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | 23% | +335% | $3K |
| 3 | Lula da Silva - Brazil President BEST VALUE | 6% | +1539% | $3K |
| 4 | Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 4% | +2757% | $6K |
| 5 | Putin - Russia President | 3% | +3348% | $2K |
| 6 | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 3% | +3348% | $1K |
| 7 | Lecornu - France PM | 2% | +4248% | $3K |
| 8 | Abbas - President of Palestine | 1% | +6797% | $2K |
| 9 | Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1% | +7900% | $1K |
| 10 | Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 1% | +8596% | $2K |
| 11 | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 1% | +11011% | $2K |
| 12 | Newsom - California Governor | 1% | +11665% | $1K |
| 13 | Takaichi - Japan PM | 1% | +11665% | $1K |
| 14 | Sánchez - Spanish PM | 1% | +13233% | $2K |
| 15 | Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 1% | +16567% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o...
This prediction market tracks whether Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro) will occur, with $54K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with None before 2027 leading at just 60%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (25% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 19, 2026 at 08:55 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 60% probability, with $54K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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