No clear favorite. Netanyahu - Israel PM leads at just 36%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | 36% | +174% | $37K |
| 2 | None before 2027 | 32% | +212% | $99K |
| 3 | Merz - German Chancellor BEST VALUE | 9% | +975% | $10K |
| 4 | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 4% | +2757% | $12K |
| 5 | Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 3% | +3348% | $13K |
| 6 | Lecornu - France PM | 3% | +3471% | $8K |
| 7 | Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 3% | +3604% | $9K |
| 8 | Sánchez - Spanish PM | 2% | +4551% | $9K |
| 9 | Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 1% | +7307% | $7K |
| 10 | Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 1% | +7592% | $11K |
| 11 | Putin - Russia President | 1% | +8233% | $7K |
| 12 | Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1% | +8596% | $9K |
| 13 | Trump - USA President | 1% | +9900% | $6K |
| 14 | Abbas - President of Palestine | 1% | +11665% | $8K |
| 15 | Macron - France President | 1% | +14186% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the o...
This prediction market tracks whether Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro) will occur, with $303K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Netanyahu - Israel PM leads at only 36% across 15 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 15, 2026 at 00:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Netanyahu - Israel PM at 36% probability, with $303K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $303K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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