This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Next PM in 2026 | 40% | $128K |
| 2 | Angela Rayner | 20% | $256K |
| 3 | Nigel Farage | 8% | $559K |
| 4 | Ed Miliband | 7% | $176K |
| 5 | Wes Streeting | 6% | $62K |
| 6 | Andy Burnham | 4% | $293K |
| 7 | Rupert Lowe | 3% | $571K |
| 8 | Shabana Mahmood | 2% | $198K |
| 9 | Al Carns | 1% | $105K |
| 10 | Yvette Cooper | 1% | $154K |
| 11 | Lucy Powell | 1% | $166K |
| 12 | David Lammy | 1% | $98K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is No Next PM in 2026 at 40% probability, with $4.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $4.1M, with $57K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade