The market strongly favors Democratic Party at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Democratic Party | 96% | +5% | $19K |
| 2 | Republican Party | 3% | +3746% | $28K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm election...
This prediction market tracks whether NY-05 House Election Winner will occur, with $47K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Democratic Party is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (33% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 16, 2026 at 01:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 96% probability, with $47K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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