Claire Valdez leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claire Valdez | 83% | +20% | $35K |
| 2 | Antonio Reynoso BEST VALUE | 18% | +471% | $23K |
| 3 | Julie Won | 1% | +16567% | $11K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner will occur, with $160K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Claire Valdez at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $14K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 18, 2026 at 23:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Claire Valdez at 83% probability, with $160K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $160K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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