Market is split — June 30 at 56%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $36.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 56% | +77% | $1.1M |
| 2 | May 31 | 26% | +277% | $1.6M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 56% probability, with $36.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $36.1M, with $362K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms