Sergio Moro leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergio Moro | 72% | +40% | $61K |
| 2 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Sandro Alex BEST VALUE | 24% | +308% | $2K |
| 12 | Alexandre Curi | 3% | +2841% | $2K |
| 13 | Guto Silva | 1% | +16567% | $2K |
| 14 | Rafael Greca | 1% | +18082% | $2K |
| 15 | Beto Richa | 1% | +18082% | $2K |
| 16 | Enio Verri | 1% | +18082% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round....
This prediction market tracks whether Paraná Governor Election Winner will occur, with $82K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Sergio Moro at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (18% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-05. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 27, 2026 at 22:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Sergio Moro at 72% probability, with $82K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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