The market strongly favors November 30 at 97%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 30 | 97% | +3% | $1K |
| 2 | November 7 | 89% | +13% | $11K |
| 3 | October 31 BEST VALUE | 58% | +71% | $31K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the Cit...
This prediction market tracks whether Paris curfew effectively lifted by...? will occur, with $55K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: November 30 is priced at 97%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours alone (43% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 26, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the leading outcome is November 30 at 97% probability, with $55K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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