No clear favorite. Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? leads at just 2%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? | 2% | +4067% | $61K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? will occur, with $61K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? leads at only 2% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 11, 2026 at 06:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? at 2% probability, with $61K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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