Market is split — December 31 at 46%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 46% | +115% | $74K |
| 2 | October 31 | 36% | +174% | $38K |
| 3 | June 30 BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $130K |
| 4 | May 31 | 2% | +4155% | $123K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement r...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 46% probability, with $366K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $366K, with $132K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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