Market is split — December 31 at 43%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $5.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 43% | +133% | $1.9M |
| 2 | October 31 | 25% | +300% | $574K |
| 3 | August 31 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement r...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? will occur, with $5.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with December 31 leading at just 43%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $119K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 29, 2026 at 02:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 43% probability, with $5.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $5.0M, with $119K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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