December 31, 2027 leads at 70%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $10.7M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2027 | 70% | +44% | $61K |
| 2 | November 30, 2027 | 70% | +44% | $10K |
| 3 | October 31, 2027 | 68% | +48% | $76K |
| 4 | September 30, 2027 | 64% | +57% | $7K |
| 5 | August 31, 2027 | 62% | +63% | $17K |
| 6 | July 31, 2027 | 60% | +68% | $8K |
| 7 | June 30, 2027 | 57% | +75% | $185K |
| 8 | May 31, 2027 | 56% | +80% | $137K |
| 9 | April 30, 2027 | 44% | +127% | $84K |
| 10 | March 31, 2027 | 38% | +167% | $376K |
| 11 | February 28, 2027 | 30% | +233% | $49K |
| 12 | January 31, 2027 | 26% | +277% | $225K |
| 13 | December 31 BEST VALUE | 14% | +590% | $3.3M |
| 14 | November 30 | 4% | +2757% | $249K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement r...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? will occur, with $10.7M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward December 31, 2027 at 70%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $71K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 14:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 70% probability, with $10.7M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $10.7M, with $71K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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