The market strongly favors Carlos Vila Nova at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Vila Nova | 99% | +1% | $83K |
| 2 | Person A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in São Tomé and Príncipe on July 19, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe...
This prediction market tracks whether São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election Winner will occur, with $130K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Carlos Vila Nova is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-19. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 20, 2026 at 13:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Carlos Vila Nova at 99% probability, with $130K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $130K, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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