The market strongly favors Tarcísio de Freitas at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarcísio de Freitas BEST VALUE | 94% | +6% | $122K |
| 2 | Fernando Haddad | 4% | +2310% | $46K |
| 3 | Erika Hilton | 1% | +16567% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first rou...
This prediction market tracks whether São Paulo Governor Election Winner will occur, with $277K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Tarcísio de Freitas is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $26K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 08, 2026 at 01:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Tarcísio de Freitas at 94% probability, with $277K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $277K, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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