Darline Graham Nordone leads at 69%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darline Graham Nordone | 69% | +45% | $52K |
| 2 | Candidate A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Ralph Norman | 22% | +344% | $6K |
| 14 | Russell Fry BEST VALUE | 10% | +885% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The first round of the 2026 special Republican Party primary for the United States Senate election in South Carolina will be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This...
This prediction market tracks whether South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner will occur, with $67K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Darline Graham Nordone at 69%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (26% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-11. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 08, 2026 at 05:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Darline Graham Nordone at 69% probability, with $67K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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