December 31 leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $25.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 72% | +38% | $2.3M |
| 2 | June 30 | 26% | +292% | $3.6M |
| 3 | May 31 BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $922K |
| 4 | May 19 | 2% | +4445% | $273K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between February 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this ma...
As of May 15, 2026 at 19:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 72% probability, with $25.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $25.8M, with $892K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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