No clear favorite. December 31, 2026 leads at just 9%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 9% | +1011% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) a...
This prediction market tracks whether Sudan civil war ceasefire by...? will occur, with $119K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31, 2026 leads at only 9% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $13K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 18, 2026 at 13:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 9% probability, with $119K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $119K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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