Texas Senate Election Winner

Ends Nov 04, 2026 · Volume: $2.5M · 24h: $132K · Updated Oct 08, 2026 at 17:05 UTC
PredScope Signal: Leaning

James Talarico (D) leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.

High Volume — $2.5M traded
⚡ Active 24h volume is 5.2% of total — above-average activity
# Outcome Probability If Right Volume
1 James Talarico (D) 66% +50% $1.2M
2 Ken Paxton (R) 34% +190% $1.3M
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Quick Math — $100 on James Talarico (D)
Buy Price
$0.67
If Right
+$50.38
Return
+50%
If wrong, you lose your $100 investment. Prediction markets carry risk.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he o...

Market Analysis

This prediction market tracks whether Texas Senate Election Winner will occur, with $2.5M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.

Traders lean toward James Talarico (D) at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.

Recent trading volume of $132K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.

This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.

Total Volume
$2.5M
Liquidity
$760K

FAQ

What are the current odds for Texas Senate Election Winner?

As of Oct 08, 2026 at 17:05 UTC, the leading outcome is James Talarico (D) at 66% probability, with $2.5M in total trading volume on Polymarket.

How much money is bet on Texas Senate Election Winner?

The total trading volume for this market is $2.5M, with $132K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.

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