No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 20%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 20% | +388% | $19K |
| 2 | November 30 BEST VALUE | 11% | +809% | $6K |
| 3 | October 31 | 4% | +2678% | $7K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Kevin Warsh between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will re...
This prediction market tracks whether Trump publicly insults Warsh by...? will occur, with $32K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 20% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (50% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 30, 2026 at 00:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 20% probability, with $32K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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