No clear favorite. U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? leads at just 5%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? | 5% | +1941% | $78K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed between market c...
This prediction market tracks whether U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? will occur, with $78K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? leads at only 5% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (23% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? at 5% probability, with $78K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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