Market is split — December 31 at 56%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 56% | +80% | $4K |
| 2 | July 31 BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $39K |
| 3 | June 30 | 1% | +6797% | $180K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United St...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Cuba economic deal by...? will occur, with $360K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with December 31 leading at just 56%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 09:15 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 56% probability, with $360K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $360K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms