The market strongly favors Ben McAdams at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben McAdams | 86% | +16% | $44K |
| 2 | Nate Blouin | 12% | +700% | $23K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether UT-01 Democratic Primary Winner will occur, with $97K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Ben McAdams is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours alone (26% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 18, 2026 at 06:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Ben McAdams at 86% probability, with $97K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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