The market strongly favors Wife at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wife | 100% | +0% | $4K |
| 2 | Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | 100% | +0% | $3K |
| 3 | Illegal Alien | 100% | +0% | $2K |
| 4 | Charlie / Kirk | 100% | +1% | $4K |
| 5 | America / American 20+ times | 99% | +1% | $1K |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 84% | +19% | $3K |
| 7 | Hell | 83% | +21% | $1K |
| 8 | 2028 / Campaign | 82% | +23% | $3K |
| 9 | American Dream | 80% | +24% | $2K |
| 10 | Working Class / Middle Class | 70% | +43% | $2K |
| 11 | Ass | 55% | +82% | $5K |
| 12 | Tax 7+ times | 32% | +217% | $126 |
| 13 | Socialist / Socialism | 31% | +223% | $1K |
| 14 | Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | 17% | +488% | $2K |
| 15 | China / Chinese | 12% | +755% | $1K |
| 16 | America First | 8% | +1158% | $2K |
| 17 | AI / Artificial Intelligence BEST VALUE | 7% | +1329% | $2K |
| 18 | Iran 3+ times | 1% | +18082% | $164 |
| 19 | Israel / Israeli | 1% | +18082% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
JD Vance is scheduled to give remarks at the RNC Convention on September 9, 2026 at 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance says the listed term during the specified appearance. Other...
This prediction market tracks whether What will JD Vance say during RNC Convention? will occur, with $41K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Wife is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (52% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 11, 2026 at 03:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Wife at 100% probability, with $41K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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