The market strongly favors Inflation 20+ times at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inflation 20+ times | 86% | +16% | $303 |
| 2 | Balance Sheet | 82% | +22% | $51 |
| 3 | Central Bank | 82% | +23% | $1K |
| 4 | Productivity | 82% | +23% | $1K |
| 5 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 82% | +23% | $177 |
| 6 | North Star | 71% | +41% | $205 |
| 7 | Bet / Betting | 71% | +41% | $447 |
| 8 | Oil | 70% | +42% | $859 |
| 9 | Independence | 66% | +52% | $10 |
| 10 | Shock | 65% | +54% | $20 |
| 11 | Uncertainty | 65% | +54% | $96 |
| 12 | Supply shock | 64% | +57% | - |
| 13 | Restrictive | 64% | +57% | $20 |
| 14 | Good day | 62% | +60% | $1K |
| 15 | Projection | 62% | +60% | $20 |
| 16 | Echo of History | 55% | +83% | $499 |
| 17 | President | 54% | +85% | $897 |
| 18 | Inflation 40+ times | 51% | +96% | $106 |
| 19 | Task Force 20+ times | 44% | +125% | $609 |
| 20 | Groupthink / Group think BEST VALUE | 38% | +160% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the follow...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Inflation 20+ times is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 21, 2026 at 12:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Inflation 20+ times at 86% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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