The market strongly favors Illinois at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Illinois | 100% | +1% | $484 |
| 2 | Alaska | 100% | +1% | $462 |
| 3 | Russia / Ukraine | 100% | +1% | $8K |
| 4 | Ass | 99% | +1% | $106 |
| 5 | Tariff 5+ times | 86% | +16% | $62 |
| 6 | Crazy 7+ times | 78% | +28% | $2K |
| 7 | Daylight Saving | 57% | +74% | $133 |
| 8 | Maduro | 53% | +89% | $884 |
| 9 | Shit | 52% | +92% | $49 |
| 10 | Hormuz / Blockade | 52% | +94% | $236 |
| 11 | MIT | 48% | +106% | $177 |
| 12 | Transgender 7+ times | 42% | +135% | $863 |
| 13 | SI / Super Intelligence | 40% | +147% | $279 |
| 14 | Tax 32+ times | 32% | +217% | $3K |
| 15 | Hell 15+ times | 27% | +270% | $551 |
| 16 | Electricity / Chip | 26% | +277% | $110 |
| 17 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 26% | +292% | $1K |
| 18 | Brazil | 12% | +700% | $19 |
| 19 | Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | 12% | +770% | $149 |
| 20 | Data Center BEST VALUE | 10% | +852% | $699 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Dubuque, Iowa on November 1, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-dubuque-iowa-president-donald-j-t...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during his Midterm rally in Iowa? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Illinois is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (82% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 01, 2026 at 22:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Illinois at 100% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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