The market strongly favors Iran at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iran | 100% | - | $979 |
| 2 | China | 100% | - | $750 |
| 3 | President Xi | 100% | - | $691 |
| 4 | Tariff 7+ times | 100% | - | $566 |
| 5 | Sleepy Joe | 100% | - | $785 |
| 6 | Border 7+ times | 100% | - | $2K |
| 7 | Obama / Biden 7+ times | 100% | - | $2K |
| 8 | Oil / Gas 5+ times | 100% | - | $1K |
| 9 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 100% | - | $312 |
| 10 | Hottest | 100% | - | $721 |
| 11 | Fake News | 100% | - | $1K |
| 12 | Dumb | 100% | - | $510 |
| 13 | Rally | 100% | - | $468 |
| 14 | Million / Billion / Trillion 25+ times | 48% | +106% | $45 |
| 15 | Negotiation / Negotiator BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $383 |
| 16 | Iowa | 2% | +4155% | $819 |
| 17 | Japan | 1% | +18082% | $192 |
| 18 | Kamala | 1% | +18082% | $173 |
| 19 | Leading China | 1% | +18082% | $184 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Pennsylvania on June 23, 2026 (https://x.com/RepMeuser/status/2067728952404115773). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during r...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during Pennsylvania events? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Iran is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (96% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 24, 2026 at 13:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Iran at 100% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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