The market strongly favors No Tax on Tips at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No Tax on Tips | 94% | +6% | $107 |
| 2 | MAGA / Make America Great Again | 93% | +8% | $358 |
| 3 | Radical Left | 93% | +8% | $156 |
| 4 | Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | 91% | +10% | $402 |
| 5 | Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 88% | +13% | $546 |
| 6 | Hell 10+ times | 67% | +49% | $227 |
| 7 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 62% | +63% | $4K |
| 8 | Kamala / Obama / Biden 12+ times | 60% | +68% | $5 |
| 9 | Charlie / Kirk | 57% | +75% | $293 |
| 10 | Rigged Election | 26% | +285% | $1K |
| 11 | Autism | 22% | +355% | $1K |
| 12 | Vegan | 19% | +426% | $213 |
| 13 | Gay | 14% | +614% | $800 |
| 14 | Ass | 12% | +700% | $2K |
| 15 | Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin BEST VALUE | 8% | +1150% | $5K |
| 16 | -No Qualifying Event- | 1% | +11665% | $639 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks at the RNC Convention on September 9, 2026 at 10AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 1)? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: No Tax on Tips is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $16K traded in the last 24 hours alone (95% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-10. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 10, 2026 at 00:05 UTC, the leading outcome is No Tax on Tips at 94% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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