The market strongly favors Midterm at 96%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Midterm | 96% | +4% | $863 |
| 2 | Through the Roof | 90% | +12% | $25 |
| 3 | Central Casting | 88% | +14% | $35 |
| 4 | No No No | 87% | +15% | $74 |
| 5 | Crooked Joe | 84% | +18% | $6 |
| 6 | Affordable / Affordability | 84% | +18% | $436 |
| 7 | Ass | 82% | +21% | $2K |
| 8 | American Dream | 82% | +21% | $1 |
| 9 | Garbage | 82% | +23% | - |
| 10 | Sucker | 79% | +27% | $383 |
| 11 | Six Seven | 79% | +27% | $678 |
| 12 | Slob | 72% | +38% | $351 |
| 13 | Green New Scam | 72% | +39% | $76 |
| 14 | Marxist | 70% | +43% | $264 |
| 15 | State of the Union / State of Union | 68% | +46% | - |
| 16 | Soaking Wet | 63% | +59% | $3K |
| 17 | Presidential Walk of Fame | 62% | +60% | - |
| 18 | Dictionary | 55% | +82% | - |
| 19 | Movie Star | 55% | +82% | - |
| 20 | Let Me Finish BEST VALUE | 52% | +90% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ‘mentio...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Trump say in August? will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Midterm is priced at 96%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (92% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 30, 2026 at 22:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Midterm at 96% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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