November 2–November 8 leads at 75%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 2–November 8 | 75% | +34% | $13K |
| 2 | November 16–November 22 | 12% | +733% | $9K |
| 3 | November 9–November 15 BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $13K |
| 4 | No release by January 31 | 2% | +4248% | $4K |
| 5 | December 7–December 13 | 1% | +15285% | $2K |
| 6 | December 14–December 20 | 1% | +15285% | $3K |
| 7 | December 21–December 27 | 1% | +15285% | $2K |
| 8 | November 30–December 6 | 1% | +18082% | $10K |
| 9 | December 28–January 3 | 1% | +18082% | $1K |
| 10 | January 4–January 10 | 1% | +18082% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designat...
This prediction market tracks whether When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released? will occur, with $76K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by available information and market participant behavior.
Traders lean toward November 2–November 8 at 75%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (20% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-02-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 02, 2026 at 20:45 UTC, the leading outcome is November 2–November 8 at 75% probability, with $76K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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