Market is split — Venezuela at 60%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela | 60% | +68% | $70K |
| 2 | Lebanon | 12% | +700% | $108K |
| 3 | Saudi Arabia | 10% | +852% | $54K |
| 4 | Indonesia | 8% | +1076% | $17K |
| 5 | Syria | 6% | +1438% | $18K |
| 6 | Tunisia | 6% | +1438% | $12K |
| 7 | Kuwait | 6% | +1438% | $13K |
| 8 | Pakistan BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $4K |
| 9 | Iran | 5% | +1941% | $12K |
| 10 | Bangladesh | 5% | +1962% | $12K |
| 11 | Cuba | 4% | +2173% | $8K |
| 12 | Iraq | 4% | +2226% | $12K |
| 13 | Qatar | 4% | +2497% | $33K |
| 14 | Afghanistan | 4% | +2532% | $18K |
| 15 | Malaysia | 4% | +2567% | $12K |
| 16 | North Korea | 3% | +3409% | $18K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? will occur, with $420K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with Venezuela leading at just 60%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Recent trading volume of $49K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 12, 2026 at 08:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Venezuela at 60% probability, with $420K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $420K, with $49K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms