Lebanon leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lebanon | 64% | +56% | $28K |
| 2 | Tunisia | 20% | +413% | $6K |
| 3 | Venezuela | 18% | +456% | $5K |
| 4 | Syria | 12% | +733% | $6K |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia | 12% | +733% | $18K |
| 6 | Cuba | 10% | +852% | $1K |
| 7 | Kuwait | 10% | +852% | $1K |
| 8 | Indonesia | 10% | +852% | $2K |
| 9 | Bangladesh | 8% | +1233% | $7K |
| 10 | Iran | 8% | +1233% | $4K |
| 11 | Qatar | 6% | +1438% | $7K |
| 12 | Iraq | 6% | +1438% | $302 |
| 13 | Pakistan BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $2K |
| 14 | North Korea | 4% | +2122% | $1K |
| 15 | Afghanistan | 4% | +2122% | $10K |
| 16 | Malaysia | 4% | +2122% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? will occur, with $104K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward Lebanon at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (16% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 03:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Lebanon at 64% probability, with $104K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $104K, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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