No clear favorite. Kuwait leads at just 26%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuwait | 26% | +281% | $25K |
| 2 | Venezuela | 14% | +614% | $373K |
| 3 | Tunisia | 8% | +1233% | $22K |
| 4 | Lebanon | 7% | +1329% | $120K |
| 5 | Saudi Arabia BEST VALUE | 5% | +1823% | $80K |
| 6 | Pakistan | 4% | +2122% | $10K |
| 7 | Iraq | 4% | +2281% | $15K |
| 8 | Qatar | 4% | +2310% | $47K |
| 9 | Syria | 4% | +2717% | $23K |
| 10 | Indonesia | 4% | +2757% | $26K |
| 11 | Cuba | 3% | +2885% | $16K |
| 12 | North Korea | 3% | +3409% | $22K |
| 13 | Afghanistan | 3% | +3536% | $21K |
| 14 | Malaysia | 2% | +3900% | $15K |
| 15 | Iran | 2% | +4445% | $18K |
| 16 | Bangladesh | 1% | +7900% | $17K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31? will occur, with $851K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — Kuwait leads at only 26% across 16 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $22K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 11, 2026 at 02:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Kuwait at 26% probability, with $851K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $851K, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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