No clear favorite. Venezuela leads at just 3%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela | 3% | +3409% | $88K |
| 2 | Lebanon | 3% | +3674% | $72K |
| 3 | Tunisia | 2% | +6567% | $3K |
| 4 | Kuwait | 1% | +13233% | $2K |
| 5 | Syria | 1% | +16567% | $15K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to...
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30? will occur, with $456K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Venezuela leads at only 3% across 5 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $14K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 21, 2026 at 14:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Venezuela at 3% probability, with $456K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $456K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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