The market strongly favors Abbas Araghchi at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbas Araghchi | 90% | +12% | $719 |
| 2 | JD Vance | 90% | +12% | $600 |
| 3 | Steve Witkoff | 80% | +26% | $147 |
| 4 | Shehbaz Sharif | 76% | +32% | $769 |
| 5 | Jared Kushner | 69% | +45% | $2K |
| 6 | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 37% | +170% | $2K |
| 7 | Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 22% | +355% | $338 |
| 8 | Recep Tayyip Erdogan | 22% | +365% | $287 |
| 9 | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 21% | +376% | $322 |
| 10 | Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 20% | +388% | $156 |
| 11 | Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 13% | +669% | $471 |
| 12 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 12% | +700% | $279 |
| 13 | King Abdullah II | 10% | +953% | $1K |
| 14 | Donald Trump BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $2K |
| 15 | Mohammed bin Salman | 4% | +2717% | $805 |
| 16 | Marco Rubio | 3% | +2799% | $3K |
| 17 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 2% | +4344% | $556 |
| 18 | Pete Hegseth | 2% | +4344% | $2K |
| 19 | Elon Musk | 2% | +5782% | $260 |
| 20 | Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% | +7592% | $1K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed in...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony? will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Abbas Araghchi is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 17, 2026 at 02:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Abbas Araghchi at 90% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms