The market strongly favors Cait Conley at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cait Conley | 90% | +12% | $67K |
| 2 | Beth Davidson | 9% | +1011% | $39K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 m...
This prediction market tracks whether NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner will occur, with $122K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Cait Conley is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $49K traded in the last 24 hours alone (40% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-23. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 18, 2026 at 20:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Cait Conley at 90% probability, with $122K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $122K, with $49K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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