Troy Jackson leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Troy Jackson | 66% | +52% | $11K |
| 2 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Graham Platner BEST VALUE | 6% | +1670% | $783 |
| 13 | Dan Kleban | 5% | +2028% | $170 |
| 14 | Jordan Wood | 3% | +3471% | $292 |
| 15 | Janet Mills | 2% | +4900% | $5K |
| 16 | Aaron Frey | 2% | +5163% | $101 |
| 17 | Jared Golden | 1% | +8596% | $197 |
| 18 | Chellie Pingree | 1% | +15285% | $110 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
If a party nominee in Maine voluntarily withdraws from their election by July 13 at 5:00PM ET, their political party may replace them by July 27 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve according to t...
This prediction market tracks whether Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27? will occur, with $18K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Troy Jackson at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-27. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 07, 2026 at 14:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Troy Jackson at 66% probability, with $18K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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