The market strongly favors Jay Clayton at 95%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jay Clayton | 95% | +5% | $60K |
| 2 | Person B BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person P | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person Q | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person R | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Person S | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Person T | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be AI czar. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to appo...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will be Trump's AI "czar" in 2026? will occur, with $102K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jay Clayton is priced at 95%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $79K traded in the last 24 hours alone (77% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 04, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Jay Clayton at 95% probability, with $102K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $102K, with $79K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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