The market strongly favors Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador) at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $3.2M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador) | 100% | - | $2.0M |
| 2 | Elon Musk (DOGE Head) | 100% | - | $175K |
| 3 | Robert Lighthizer (USTR) BEST VALUE | 9% | +1011% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual ceases to occupy the listed position for any period of time between February 12 and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump fire in first 100 days? will occur, with $3.2M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador) is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $9K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2025-04-29. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 13, 2026 at 18:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador) at 100% probability, with $3.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $3.2M, with $9K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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