The market strongly favors Joe Biden at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Biden | 100% | - | $22K |
| 2 | Barack Obama | 100% | - | $29K |
| 3 | Nicolás Maduro | 57% | +74% | $256 |
| 4 | Jerome Powell | 56% | +79% | $52 |
| 5 | Candace Owens | 52% | +92% | - |
| 6 | Emmanuel Macron | 51% | +96% | - |
| 7 | Jimmy Kimmel | 50% | +98% | - |
| 8 | Elon Musk | 46% | +120% | $3 |
| 9 | Kaitlan Collins | 44% | +125% | - |
| 10 | Megyn Kelly | 44% | +130% | - |
| 11 | Alex Jones | 44% | +130% | - |
| 12 | Norah O'Donnell | 44% | +130% | - |
| 13 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 43% | +133% | - |
| 14 | Tucker Carlson | 40% | +153% | - |
| 15 | Freidrich Merz | 36% | +174% | $65 |
| 16 | Pope Leo XIV | 35% | +186% | $47 |
| 17 | Zohran Mamdani | 32% | +212% | $24 |
| 18 | Pam Bondi | 31% | +224% | $90 |
| 19 | Keir Starmer | 24% | +326% | $142 |
| 20 | Benjamin Netanyahu BEST VALUE | 22% | +365% | $313 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner betw...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31? will occur, with $54K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Joe Biden is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $43K traded in the last 24 hours alone (80% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 02, 2026 at 21:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Joe Biden at 100% probability, with $54K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms