No clear favorite. KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? leads at just 7%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | 7% | +1329% | $74K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state...
This prediction market tracks whether KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? will occur, with $72K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? leads at only 7% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (27% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 11, 2026 at 05:15 UTC, the leading outcome is KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? at 7% probability, with $72K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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