No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 6%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 6% | +1567% | $4K |
| 2 | June 30 | 1% | +7307% | $243K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered capture...
As of May 15, 2026 at 00:35 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 6% probability, with $556K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $556K, with $132K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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