September 30 leads at 63%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 63% | +59% | $379 |
| 2 | June 30 | 4% | +2717% | $59K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Huliaip...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? will occur, with $895K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward September 30 at 63%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $24K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 28, 2026 at 07:05 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 63% probability, with $895K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $895K, with $24K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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