June 30, 2027 leads at 64%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $1.9M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30, 2027 | 64% | +57% | $1K |
| 2 | March 31, 2027 | 46% | +117% | $1K |
| 3 | December 31 | 15% | +567% | $1.0M |
| 4 | November 30 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $193 |
| 5 | October 31 | 3% | +3604% | $79K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified d...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? will occur, with $1.9M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward June 30, 2027 at 64%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $42K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 05, 2026 at 05:05 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 64% probability, with $1.9M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.9M, with $42K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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