Market is split — December 31 at 60%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 60% | +68% | $235K |
| 2 | September 30 | 20% | +388% | $4K |
| 3 | July 31 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1752% | $12K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostya...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...? will occur, with $479K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with December 31 leading at just 60%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $18K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 27, 2026 at 14:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 60% probability, with $479K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $479K, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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