No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 30%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 30% | +233% | $435 |
| 2 | September 30 | 18% | +456% | $14K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be cons...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...? will occur, with $138K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 30% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $14K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 03, 2026 at 16:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 30% probability, with $138K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $138K, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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