The market strongly favors December 31, 2026 at 89%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $8.3M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 89% | +13% | $1.4M |
| 2 | September 30, 2026 | 72% | +38% | $406K |
| 3 | August 31, 2026 | 50% | +102% | $63K |
| 4 | July 31, 2026 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1769% | $250K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? will occur, with $8.3M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: December 31, 2026 is priced at 89%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $23K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2025-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 25, 2026 at 12:25 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 89% probability, with $8.3M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $8.3M, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms